Super Sarah
Super Person
Dancer
Mildtropolis: safe from Coronavirus but the crowd will kill you!
Posts: 381
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Post by Super Sarah on Oct 29, 2013 13:00:27 GMT -8
There are already a few live known diplomats. No reason to fear the poly. Sarah is the suspect, poly her. First of all Zac, there is ONE living diplomat, and it's Paula. Second of all.... fine go ahead and vote for me Fatty, but you'll have some 'splaining to do when you see I'm a diplomat. We've polygraphed diplomats two weeks in a row already, so we need to make this week count. You're all soooooo trusting of True, but she and I have exactly the same vote pattern and we killed two spies. Tulley hasn't killed any spies. He voted for Annie in week 2 but so did Amer. Not to mention it's plainly obvious that Brad is a spy but you decided to be suspicious of me instead? I just want to know what solid evidence you have other than a "50.1% hunch" that makes me suspicious? Seriously... what did I do?
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Oct 29, 2013 13:22:27 GMT -8
The only spy you killed was Annie, who I voted for in week 2.
Like I said, its just a hunch. You seem different than previous years.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Oct 29, 2013 13:27:50 GMT -8
I also find the focus on the votes a little suspicious. The most important thing I think with the votes is that for sure a spy has votes for annie or amer, since they were pretty obvious choices those weeks and the best defense is that "hey, I voted for spy", so I'm sure that a spy will use that theory. Other than that, I think the votes are likely pretty random or the safe play, that's the general best way to hide as a spy.
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Super Sarah
Super Person
Dancer
Mildtropolis: safe from Coronavirus but the crowd will kill you!
Posts: 381
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Post by Super Sarah on Oct 29, 2013 13:55:32 GMT -8
The only spy you killed was Annie, who I voted for in week 2. Like I said, its just a hunch. You seem different than previous years. It's because I'm 30 now And Zac, I'm only focusing on votes now because we don't have much else. Who the spies kill doesn't matter because they also get to vote so it's not a tell for us. Also, I was a spy on the first draw and now I'm not. Hence the disappointment that you saw Tulley's spy email and I had to be a diplomat. What are the odds that someone from that original group would be drawn as a spy again? There were 5 of us, 3 are known diplomats, I know I'm a diplomat, and there's Tulley. Someone good at math should figure that out.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Oct 29, 2013 15:11:13 GMT -8
If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads all 50, what are the chances the 51st will be tails? Still 50/50. Being on the previous list does not mean anything for the 2nd roll assuming it is as stated and random. 23 people and 5 diplomats, means you always have a 21.73% chance of being a spy(Though in reality each draw after the first becomes less likely depending on where you were chosen)
However, for combination probability, 51 heads in a row is 4.4404E-16 likely. And so the probability of being selected twice is more like 4.7%. However, the chance of at least one of the new people chosen being a spy in terms of combinations is more like 23.62%, which is slightly better than the independent chance.
So, unless my math is off, it's a little more likely you or Tulley is a spy than the general overall chance of any random person being a spy.
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Post by Fatty McFatzzzz on Oct 29, 2013 15:44:00 GMT -8
lets vote for both
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Super Sarah
Super Person
Dancer
Mildtropolis: safe from Coronavirus but the crowd will kill you!
Posts: 381
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Post by Super Sarah on Oct 29, 2013 15:55:33 GMT -8
If you're a spy, you can!
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Super Sarah
Super Person
Dancer
Mildtropolis: safe from Coronavirus but the crowd will kill you!
Posts: 381
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Post by Super Sarah on Oct 29, 2013 16:02:43 GMT -8
If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads all 50, what are the chances the 51st will be tails? Still 50/50. Being on the previous list does not mean anything for the 2nd roll assuming it is as stated and random. 23 people and 5 diplomats, means you always have a 21.73% chance of being a spy(Though in reality each draw after the first becomes less likely depending on where you were chosen) However, for combination probability, 51 heads in a row is 4.4404E-16 likely. And so the probability of being selected twice is more like 4.7%. However, the chance of at least one of the new people chosen being a spy in terms of combinations is more like 23.62%, which is slightly better than the independent chance. So, unless my math is off, it's a little more likely you or Tulley is a spy than the general overall chance of any random person being a spy. "So you're saying there's a chance!" -Dumb and Dumber ;D
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Oct 29, 2013 19:14:31 GMT -8
Zac, you had it right the first time. The chance of Sarah or I being a spy in the 2nd draw is exactly the same as the first draw. After the first draw is thrown out, all bets are off. Your second analysis only matters if you are trying to predict things ahead of time. Unless you want to add the wrinkle that evan always reveals a non-spy, then we are in Monty Hall Territory.
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Super Sarah
Super Person
Dancer
Mildtropolis: safe from Coronavirus but the crowd will kill you!
Posts: 381
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Post by Super Sarah on Oct 30, 2013 15:06:09 GMT -8
Can't we all just agree to vote for Brad this week?
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Oct 30, 2013 15:35:31 GMT -8
Can't we all just agree to vote for Brad this week? Brad seems like a perfectly valid target, but really, all this defense of what is clearly a harmless poly seems to indicate spy. This is similar to Annie's behavior before she was pinched. The whole, "sure, I'm OK with the Poly, but here's why it shouldn't be me" seems guilty to me. Plus, if you are a spy, we can be darn sure Brad isn't, since a spy wouldn't deflect to another spy, so at this stage, a poly for you is a double win.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Oct 30, 2013 16:09:46 GMT -8
I agree with Zac 100%. Sarah is getting my vote, hopefully the secret cabal agrees.
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Oct 30, 2013 16:14:59 GMT -8
Can't we all just agree to vote for Brad this week? Brad seems like a perfectly valid target, but really, all this defense of what is clearly a harmless poly seems to indicate spy. This is similar to Annie's behavior before she was pinched. The whole, "sure, I'm OK with the Poly, but here's why it shouldn't be me" seems guilty to me. Plus, if you are a spy, we can be darn sure Brad isn't, since a spy wouldn't deflect to another spy, so at this stage, a poly for you is a double win. Just relax. If you're innocent, you'll be fine.
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Annie McClarabow
Super Person
Owner of "All-Night Library"
Pay your library tab, errr I mean fines
Posts: 531
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Oct 30, 2013 16:25:16 GMT -8
The cabal is back!
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Post by Stinky Pete on Oct 30, 2013 19:44:48 GMT -8
If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads all 50, what are the chances the 51st will be tails? Still 50/50. No, Bayesian reasoning means you should update your subjective probability that the coin is biased once it does something so unlikely according to the typical 50/50 model *hurk*...*hurk*...*hurk* *blaaaauuuuurgh* Ah, now I feel better
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Oct 30, 2013 20:40:58 GMT -8
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Post by Fatty McFatzzzz on Oct 31, 2013 6:22:43 GMT -8
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Post by Neutrino Esquire on Oct 31, 2013 8:07:07 GMT -8
I think you guys should call a truce and start picking off the inactive people. If the game is still not over by then, you can continue your little fight.
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Post by Fatty McFatzzzz on Oct 31, 2013 8:23:34 GMT -8
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Oct 31, 2013 8:45:39 GMT -8
I think you guys should call a truce and start picking off the inactive people. If the game is still not over by then, you can continue your little fight. For like the 20th time, the poly DOES NOT PICK PEOPLE OFF. It just doesn't. The only people loving this idea are the spies for us to drive fear and contention. Unless the remaining spies are both slow playing, which seems unlikely for both, then there is no urgency to test those people. The early votes are absolutely terrible indications of allegiance. Hell, even when there are 3 or 4 people last year, the clones considered voting for each other just to throw people off. In fact, at games end, I bet we find out at least one spy early on voted for another spy each week. Yes, this means we don't have a lot to go on, but this is OK because we actually have numbers on our side and each week can gather more information, even if just a little, assuming we don't do things like give protection to potential spies. Sarah is the best choice this week. If for nothing else then because she targeted brad when accused. If she's a spy, then we can be darn sure brad isn't the last spy cause they would be foolhardy. If she's a diplomat, then great, we have another live diplomat to protect and we're back to trying to pick basically random.
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