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Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 20, 2015 15:28:09 GMT -8
Right now, I don't see any compelling evidence that shows anyone is a mutineer, so "voting for someone who we think is a mutineer" is not a viable option. If a pirate is going to die by vote, I'd prefer it to be an inactive.
I also believe that the mutineers have a strong incentive to remain quiet, so I think it's a better strategy to vote for less active and non-active people than to blindly shoot at active people.
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 20, 2015 15:32:14 GMT -8
Ed Bagels was a name used by Muu in the past. He rarely posts but pays attention. If he were a mutineer, or muutineer, one of his teammates would likely make sure he participated at least in votes.
I think going after inactives now without any other evidence is fishy.
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 20, 2015 16:26:51 GMT -8
So The Dread Pirate Roberts messaged me that he has reasons outside the game to think edbagels is a mutineer. I'd like to know what those reasons are.
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cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
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Post by cid on Aug 20, 2015 16:45:41 GMT -8
Right now, I don't see any compelling evidence that shows anyone is a mutineer, so "voting for someone who we think is a mutineer" is not a viable option. If a pirate is going to die by vote, I'd prefer it to be an inactive. I also believe that the mutineers have a strong incentive to remain quiet, so I think it's a better strategy to vote for less active and non-active people than to blindly shoot at active people. Please describe to me what would be compelling evidence that would show someone or a group of people to be mutineers. Voting for someone who is inactive and is highly likely to die tomorrow via being inactive is almost equivalent not voting someone at all, except you won't be voting for yourself. The likeihood of voting for a pirate is already high regardless who you vote for. The only benefit I see for voting for edbagels, who's most likely a soon-to-be-dead pirate is that you won't vote for yourself and that we will have less casualties, but will still be no where closer to figuring out who is mutineers. Voting for edbagels at best will give us 2-3 deaths, but at worst 4 deaths if we vote for someone else. Next week, we can expect at least 2 more deaths with kraken and voting, but its still unlikely that we will find a mutineer. Here are some numbers 27 Players 6 Dead Pirates 1 Alive Kraken. Assuming theres 5 mutineers, we have only 15 pirates. With this week of death, we will at best have 14 pirates remaining and at worst 11. Assuming we can't find kraken by then, we will have about 6 rounds (2 deaths per round) to find out both 5 mutineers and the kraken. If we're lucky and have 14 pirates alive by next week, we only have 1 SAFE round to vote for a pirate. If there is 4 mutineers, its almost as the same as situation as 5 mutineers. 6-7 rounds left but with at most 2 safe rounds to vote for a pirate in the BEST case scenrio. If there are 7 mutineers, let just hope this is not the case. If you still are going to vote for edbagels, please attempt to convince me why and why I should not vote for Captain Jack or William
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Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 20, 2015 17:55:27 GMT -8
To me, it appears that you want to watch several pirates kill themselves while you try to kill an active player, who will most likely be a pirate. So it seems that you want to increase the number of pirate deaths this week.
I don't think your evidence is strong. It looks like you're basing your decision entirely upon their amount of participation. You may be correct, but I doubt your chances are better than 50/50. My chances are probably the same, but if I'm wrong, I won't be killing an active player. I believe edbagels will end up voting tonight, but if he doesn't, and he is a pirate, his loss won't hurt because he was going to die anyway.
It's pretty simple: 1. I believe mutineers are far more likely to be inactive. Based on history, 1 or 2 mutineers will be active players who try to steer the group. The rest will remain silent until otherwise necessary. I think their incentive to remain quiet is stronger this season than previous. 2. I would rather accidentally kill an inactive pirate than an active one.
Those statements leave me no choice but to vote for an inactive. I've chosen edbagels.
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cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
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Post by cid on Aug 20, 2015 18:19:30 GMT -8
I'm taking the chance of killing a potential pirate to get more information. Since the voting next week will most likely be the same as this week, with no hard evidence.
I understand your choice is more of a safe bet, to ensure more active pirates are alive, but I am taking the risk and going to vote for William Mccoy and hope everyone will vote for him too. His reason for why he has not been active has not been convinving.
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Post by thebay on Aug 20, 2015 18:19:49 GMT -8
So The Dread Pirate Roberts messaged me that he has reasons outside the game to think edbagels is a mutineer. I'd like to know what those reasons are. Outside the game? I don't even know who you people are INSIDE the game. WTF?
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 21:19:58 GMT -8
Fair enough. I see no reason to break rank
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 21, 2015 8:33:17 GMT -8
Hey look at that, edbagels died as expected, except it was because of a vote. Neat.
Now all we have to do is analyze all his interactions with people to see who's guilty by association.
...
...
never mind
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cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
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Post by cid on Aug 21, 2015 9:54:05 GMT -8
The good thing was, he was a mutineer. Now I am really curious how The Dreaded Pirate Roberts knew or suspected he was a mutineer.
Also called it. Piratebooty voted this week. Suspicious much?
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Post by piratebooty on Aug 24, 2015 12:38:58 GMT -8
I actually forgot I signed up and was reminded by the BRH Shout Box. But I like occupying your thoughts.
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Post by Jack Cutlass on Aug 24, 2015 15:33:50 GMT -8
Forgot? Signed Up? Hmmmmm
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