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Post by Son Anheuser on Aug 16, 2011 13:49:17 GMT -8
So Tulley had this idea
"Brad, Erik, Kyle, Steve. 2 of these 4 are witches. I say burn Erok for getting me killed, but I dont have much to go on here. Kyle seemed the most human of the 4 from my interactions with them."
Does it makes sense to focus on those four as it may increase our odds of getting a witch because the Pilgrims have yet to find one?
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Aug 16, 2011 15:00:37 GMT -8
That assumes that the witches were equally split between pilgrims and natives.
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Post by Paula - old account on Aug 16, 2011 15:31:00 GMT -8
Go for the sure thing......EROK has got to be a witch! He's responsible for most of the human deaths! He got lucky when he voted for Vampire Dan....for all he knew Dan was a human, also.
Anyone stepping in to save EROK is probably a witch, too!
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Aug 16, 2011 15:58:15 GMT -8
That assumes that the witches were equally split between pilgrims and natives. Wait, they aren't? I just assumed they had to be, otherwise one team would have a real hard time.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Aug 16, 2011 16:31:55 GMT -8
i figured that one team already had a hard time because it had a vampire in addition to witches.
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Amer
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Post by Amer on Aug 16, 2011 18:31:48 GMT -8
There were 6 witches and 1 vampire. So it's either: one team had 3 witches and 1 vampire while the other had 3 witches; or it's: one team had 4 witches, while the other had 2 witches and 1 vampire. It seems proper to have 3 witches on each team, but I don't think we can totally base our votes on that. I think we can say that there's at least 1 witch amongst the pilgrims, and at least two amongst the natives.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining players:
Pilgrims My personal conversation with Erock this weekend leads me to believe he's human (Yes, I'm aware he's an actor...). I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I wouldn't vote for him based on my personal experience. Also, the week I tried to vote out Tulley, I personally emailed Erock (and Steve and Brad) and told him to vote for Tulley. Instead, he (and Steve) voted for Dan. Why? If he was a witch, he could have voted out Tulley, and then blamed it on me.
If a witch had won this week's challenge, he would have shared the answer with the other witches. There was no reason not to. Since Brad and I are basically the only people who solved the puzzle, Brad must not have shared it with anyone else. Of course, it's possible he shared it with another witch and that witch didn't bother to turn the answer in. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a whole lot to look at. He voted for himself for two weeks, then Paula, and Dan.
The only thing Kyle did that makes me suspicious was when he relayed that Mike had sent him a PM mentioning that the witches voted off one of their own deliberately. Can any other pilgrims confirm that they received such a message? I don't think anyone believed the ridiculous "leaked" story, but it did further the goals of the witches to spread the story. I don't think that's enough to convict him, however.
Steve? Who knows. Zero forum participation; Votes don't tell much; Could be a human or a witch. Although, as I said above, when he had the opportunity to vote out Tulley and blame it on me, he didn't.
Natives I've been conversing with Annie since week 1. She's never given me any indication she's a witch. Of course, she could just be an excellent liar. Without any evidence against her, I have to assume that she's human.
Chris drew a lot of attention to himself with his unrealistic campaign against me last week. It wouldn't have mattered so much if his arguments hadn't been so empty. The fact that he concocted this attempt to vote me out makes me highly suspicious of him, however, only he and Dan, the vampire, ended up voting for me. If he's a witch, then where was his support? Did they not want to support him for fear of being linked to him? Or is Chris just acting crazy because he doesn't care? Chris also voted for Mike, the witch, in week 1, and that vote only passed by one vote, which makes me doubt that he is a witch. Still, I'm highly suspicious of him.
If we assume that it would be crazy for the witches to vote off one of their own (especially in week 1), then that leaves us with Alex, Pete, and DJ as suspects, because they did not vote for Mike. Let's look at their voting records: Alex: himself, Judy, himself, Chris DJ: Pete, Amer, Amer, Chris Pete: himself, Judy, DJ, Chris
Alex seems to vote with the group, when he's paying attention. Also, Mike, the witch, voted for him week 1. DJ votes completely erratically. It seemed like he wanted to vote me out, but when Chris told everyone to vote for me, DJ suddenly wants to vote for Chris. Pete has been a suspect since week one, for various reasons. Pete and DJ both voted for each other once, for no apparent reason. Perhaps trying to cover up their alliance? On the other hand, Mike did completely throw Pete under the bus during the vampire chat. We almost voted Pete out because Mike was impersonating him. Why would he do that to a fellow witch... for no reason?
Conclusion I'd probably put DJ at the top of my list. I see that he visits the boards quite frequently, but he never participates in discussion. His votes appear to be random. He seems to not want to draw attention to himself. I think he looks like a witch who's sitting back and watching the humans kill each other off. After him, I'd probably put Chris next on my list, followed by Pete. On the pilgrim side, I'd pick Brad or Kyle, but there's just too little evidence for me to decide on one of them.
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Brad
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Post by Brad on Aug 16, 2011 23:57:37 GMT -8
I like the logic of this thread even if it does put me on the short list.
Unfortunately, I just recently started playing more actively and haven't talked with anyone outside the game except for a little chatting with Annie and Amer so I can't really be a good witch hunter among my fellow pilgrims.
However, I can help with the fact that I know I'm human. So for me the choice is between Erok, Kyle, and Steve.
This vote is critical, if we fuck it up and there are 4 vamps left then we will only have one more chance before they are the majority. To be effective we all need to vote together, we can't split the vote like previous weeks or they already do have the majority. Voting together also has the benefit of forcing the vampires to vote with us even if they don't want to because if they don't they will reveal themselves instantly. Because this vote is so crucial and I don't know who to trust I will wait to hear the other arguments before I decide.
btw nice post Amer, that really helps me get a better understanding of what's going on.
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Post by Son Anheuser on Aug 17, 2011 4:51:43 GMT -8
Uhhhh...vampire is dead dude.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Aug 17, 2011 6:28:32 GMT -8
My money is on chris. The kill amer thread smacks of a witch playing big too soon. If steve is a witch, god help us, we got nothing on him.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Aug 17, 2011 8:02:45 GMT -8
I can confirm that mike also sent me a PM early on saying if I was a witch to contact him. I didnt mention it cuz he also posted the same thing on the boards and kyle mentioned it, so I figured it was common knowledge.
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Post by Son Anheuser on Aug 17, 2011 10:24:20 GMT -8
There were 6 witches and 1 vampire. Did Evan say there were 6? I missed that
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Brad
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Post by Brad on Aug 17, 2011 11:07:18 GMT -8
Uhhhh...vampire is dead dude. lol I meant witches, I would modify it but then your post wouldn't make sense so here we are ...
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Amer
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Post by Amer on Aug 17, 2011 12:12:18 GMT -8
I can confirm that mike also sent me a PM early on saying if I was a witch to contact him. I didnt mention it cuz he also posted the same thing on the boards and kyle mentioned it, so I figured it was common knowledge. I was specifically interested in whether Mike "slipped up" and "leaked" that the witches voted out one of their own in week one. That's what Kyle told us. I've never seen anyone else confirm that Mike said that to them. There were 6 witches and 1 vampire. Did Evan say there were 6? I missed that He hasn't officially said it, but there are things he's said (possibly while drunk) that prove this to be true. For example, he told me that the game could be over in as little as 2 weeks because the witches automatically win if their population is equal to the humans. There are 10 of us; there will be 8 of us in 2 weeks; Half of that is 4; We've killed 2; There must have been 6. Son, can you choose someone to vote for today? We should have a confirmed human do this and Tulley picked last week. I assume you've read the thread so you've pretty much seen what people are thinking. Someone has to play middle-man and pull the trigger. Make it quick. We start to lose people when work hours are done.
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Post by Son Anheuser on Aug 17, 2011 12:17:52 GMT -8
My only problem with me picking is that it takes all the pressure off the witches if I pick a human. Then they just play along and we humans have no further clue as to who to vote for. The only real evidence we get in this game is when people make decisions and arguments about who to vote for. Even if I pick a witch they might play along if they have decided to go for the win as a team
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Amer
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Post by Amer on Aug 17, 2011 12:33:16 GMT -8
My only problem with me picking is that it takes all the pressure off the witches if I pick a human. Then they just play along and we humans have no further clue as to who to vote for. The only real evidence we get in this game is when people make decisions and arguments about who to vote for. Even if I pick a witch they might play along if they have decided to go for the win as a team Yea, but they're going to do that whether you pick someone or not. I already suspect that some witches have voted for each other when it didn't matter in order to publicly separate themselves. We also know that a "witch" took down another in a late stage of a previous game, so sitting back and watching what people end up doing on their own won't reveal much, if anything. I think that all the evidence we have is just about all that we'll have to go on for the rest of the game. Besides, if you don't do it, someone else will. I'd rather it come from a dead human who has been keeping up on things, and Tulley already did it last week.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Aug 17, 2011 12:56:04 GMT -8
I was specifically interested in whether Mike "slipped up" and "leaked" that the witches voted out one of their own in week one. That's what Kyle told us. I've never seen anyone else confirm that Mike said that to them. Sorry for the confusion, but I am confirming that I received the exact same PM.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Aug 17, 2011 13:16:03 GMT -8
Son, if it would make you feel more secure, pick two candidates.
Tulley picked Dan last week then picked Brad. We followed our guts and went with Dan which turned out to be right onnnnn.
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Brad
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Post by Brad on Aug 17, 2011 13:18:20 GMT -8
I say we kill Tulley again maybe that will stop him from haunting my ass
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Aug 17, 2011 13:21:54 GMT -8
I know how non-minority Brad plays. You sir, are not playing like non-minority Brad.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Aug 17, 2011 13:24:53 GMT -8
The avatar is a bit of wishful thinking.
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