Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Nov 9, 2012 13:00:55 GMT -8
Paula was number one on my list, which several people can confirm. I didn't believe for a second that she solved the cryptogram, and I found her alibi for solving it to be rather convenient, and porous. This means that someone else who solved the puzzle gave her the answer. At least one of the following should be a clone: Tulley, Zac, Mike, and Farrell.
I've been speaking with Tulley and Zac for a couple of weeks. That certainly doesn't exonerate them, but I don't see any evidence against them. Farrell and Mike, however, had both drawn suspicion even before the cryptogram challenge. Mike nominated two good players without any consultation in week one. I imagine this was a quick strike by the clones to kill off powerful humans during the chaotic early period of the game. In week two, Farrell consulted the group, but immediately made it clear he would not nominate Mike. His reasoning for this didn't stand to reason. Why the odd devotion to Mike so early in the game? Farrell appears to be guilty by association.
We know that there are two clones left, and I currently believe Mike and Farrell to be them. I understand that True has come under suspicion this week, but I believe the best evidence we have available is that someone gave Paula the cryptogram answer, and that should be what determines who is targeted next.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 9, 2012 13:19:32 GMT -8
I totally agree. I posted the same theory re Farrell yesterday.
Two dead, confirmed humans, think the last two clones are Mike & Farrell.
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Farrell
Super Person
Bureau of Investigation Agent
Posts: 398
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Post by Farrell on Nov 9, 2012 13:23:39 GMT -8
Unfortunately for me I can't really fault amer for his logic in the cryptogram puzzle.
I knew winning the 2nd immunity challenge was going to come back and haunt me, but it was a popular vote and I didn't even consider throwing it at the time.
At the time, it was only week 2 and Mike had put up two strong players and my experience with Mike from the last game was that he is just vocal and weird. His behavior seemed consistent with the last game (where he also fought Son often) and he wasn't guilty that game either. So I really didn't think he was a clone based solely on his nominations. I also felt that if I nominated him for his nominations, I'd get nominated the following week for mine so I was trying to avoid that. I admit that was suspicious as well but it was the lesser of two evils at that point.
I think my other posts and actions have made it clear that I am human. I even posted the solution to the crypotgram without anyone asking the winners to do so.
I would volunteer to be nominated this week with Mike if people agreed to vote out mike but there are no nominations this week. I therefore suggest we just vote off mike. If he is a clone then I would be the obvious next person(although I still profess my broodness). If he is human then at least I'm exonerated for a time being.
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Annie McClarabow
Super Person
Owner of "All-Night Library"
Pay your library tab, errr I mean fines
Posts: 531
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 9, 2012 13:46:38 GMT -8
In other news, I'm going home tomorrow! Pain is under control, no more hospital food. Yay!
Vote mike, if he comes out cloney, vote Farrell.
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Post by Paula K on Nov 9, 2012 14:09:36 GMT -8
Whaaaaat? Why is it that so many "people" couldn't believe that I solved the cryptogram.....or, as i might call it, the jumbled-up-alphabet-letters-secret-coded-message? Do I not come across as the techno-savvy wiz that I am? Serioulsy, one of my major personal atttributes is my resourcefulness....if I don't know the answer to something, I find someone who does! Gotta go clip some coupons, hang my clothes out to dry, and organize my cassette tapes.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 9, 2012 14:13:12 GMT -8
I agree with this logic and like Amer said, the three of us had strong suspicions on this one. I would like to point out, however, that the clones do seem to be splitting their numbers based on the fact that votes aren't lining up. In that case, we should expect the majority of them on the winning side, but not necessarily the "puzzle solver". That might even be an ideal way to throw people off.
In either case, standard theory would be that at least the majority of the clones would be in the group which solved it since Paula was a clone, but I'm not sure of the full list of people who got the answer right. We should look that up, I couldn't find it.
However. . . .
I know generating an alternative theory probably peg me as a clone, but whatever, other than the alien, we've been unsuccessful as a group and I think we need to be more clever in our nominations now. From my observations, here is what I think. If I were a clone, I would be generally quiet, I would avoid grouping with other clones, and would try to stop covering myself in alien BBQ Sauce(by which I mean go after the alien in conversations). Also, winning protection sucks and brings the pain down on you, so I think I would avoid that too since based on % early, humans will be nominated anyway. But hey, I'm new to this, so maybe I"m wrong, but I think we're looking for a oddball voter, who doesn't put themselves out their too much, has maybe indicated we go after the alien, and hasn't won any protection. That's my 2 cents!
Also, this theory might be construed as defending Farrel, so we might kill him ,find out he's a clone, and go after me. Well, that would suck cause this game is super fun and I think I can find the remaining clones and alien(I have a theory on this one too, but why bother at this point, the alien is kicking ass). But that only proves the clones aren't being clever and that I'd make a good 'evil side' for a future game.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 9, 2012 14:24:58 GMT -8
I agree with Amer (zac's theory is interesting, but I don't see who it points to). I think Mike & Farrell need to start getting their bags packed because mob justice is going to send them on a trip.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 9, 2012 14:26:36 GMT -8
In other news, I'm going home tomorrow! Pain is under control, no more hospital food. Yay! AWESOME NEWS ANNIE!
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Nov 9, 2012 14:45:21 GMT -8
Re: your nominations You say if you nominated Mike, then you would get nominated the next week. Why? What's the logical argument here? If you nominated the previous week's winner, then you'd automatically set a trend that everyone would follow? That argument holds no water. Mike had cast suspicion on himself with his nominations in week one and people immediately wanted him nominated in week two. If you had gone with the people's choice, you would have been absolved of any guilt over nominating Mike. Instead, you went against public sentiment and preemptively defended Mike. I think that Mike won the challenge and went off and did something crazy, and in the second week, you tried to clean up his clone-mess as best you could.
Re: sharing the cryptogram Posting the solution to the cryptogram doesn't prove you're human — I'm surprised Evan didn't reveal it himself. On the contrary, I think it shows you're a clone. Your eagerness to share the solution shows me that you were pretty proud of yourself for solving it. My guess is that you're the only clone to solve it, and you shared it with Mike and Paula. Unfortunately, you couldn't get the recognition you deserved because you couldn't tell everyone that you gave the answer to Mike and Paula, so you did the next best thing: you shared it with everyone on the forum.
If I'm correct, and Mike and Farrell are the remaining clones, that would mean: a clone won the week 1 challenge; a clone won the week 2 challenge; and the three remaining clones were part of a group that won the week 3 challenge. It would be a very aggressive start for the clones, which is traditionally the opposite of how they operate, but it seems plausible to me, and appeared to be working.
The fact that my prime suspect wants us to vote for Mike makes me wary. I wouldn't want to see Farrell exonerated if Mike turned out to be human, so I suggest we do the opposite of what Farrell wants: Vote out Farrell this week. If he turns out to be a clone, then vote out Mike next week.
If one of these turns out to be human, then I'd suggest True as the target after that; again, because of nominations. True won a challenge that showed that the public believed Annie was the alien and that Mike was a clone. True then nominated Annie and... Sarah. That's the second time that the immunity-winner has inexplicably spared Mike the axe. Strange things are definitely afoot.
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Annie McClarabow
Super Person
Owner of "All-Night Library"
Pay your library tab, errr I mean fines
Posts: 531
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 9, 2012 15:04:07 GMT -8
Farrell's guilt or innocence seems to rely heavily on Mike's (as far as week 2 protection is concerned). I think we should go after mike first.
Either way, I do believe that we shouldn't let the possible humanity of one exonerate the other. there is evidence on both of them that is independent of the other.
As far as True goes, I think her actions and statements demonstrate that she was just really ignorant. I think it unlikely that she is a clone.
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Farrell
Super Person
Bureau of Investigation Agent
Posts: 398
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Post by Farrell on Nov 9, 2012 15:15:21 GMT -8
I'm implicated because I protected mike for one week. That I buy. Voting me out first I don't buy. If mike turns out to be human then suspicion against me should be substantially diminished. If you kill me first and I am human (which I am) then you still have the exact same suspicions you have against mike and mike escape elimination for yet another week.
Vote mike out this week, then if he is a clone you can vote me out. I think that is pretty reasonable.
I obviously made a big mistake protecting mike but my nominations were basically what Annie told me to nominate and it was only the second week and I thought if I put mike up he goes home, there is still no evidence of who is a clone so people would just put me up week 3. I didn't put mike up and perhaps it allowed me to stay to week 5 or 6. Of course i ended up winning immunity in week 3 and true had her own crazy nominations in week4. Hey, so basically I was the only person who had complete control of the nominations and was reasonable as to who I nominated. (except for maybe protecting mike, lol)
I think the last two clones are having a good laugh at this and if Mike is a clone then the other clone is having a really good laugh cause he/she is getting two weeks of immunity. Unless of course the alien eats another clone.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 10, 2012 9:59:08 GMT -8
Amer & I have parallel theories here. He thinks Farrell & Mike are clones. I think either Farrell or True are clones (the extension of my partially validated theory that 2 of the 4 from the group of Farrell, Annie, Paula, True are clones - Paula was a clone, Annie human so one clone left from Farrell/True). There is 1 overlap here: Farrell. Pack your bags, buddy. Mob justice is coming your way.
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Post by Mike Lenin on Nov 10, 2012 12:35:49 GMT -8
Look back at the numbers selected in week 1. Amer was poised to win, but someone had a repeat. I got lucky with the challenge and didnt realize it was a team leadership challenge. Whatever. Move on from that. Non issue
True is the most suspicious person I know. Hello, she got the answers to the quiz. She nominated Annie who was human and is not vindicating me. I am human. When I die, go after her. Surely the odds point out that she got my answer correct. True, please speak up. Vindicate me. Vindicate Annie. Why did you nominate her? Please speak up.
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Annie McClarabow
Super Person
Owner of "All-Night Library"
Pay your library tab, errr I mean fines
Posts: 531
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 10, 2012 13:01:19 GMT -8
I like Sarah's description of what happened this week - "freak n00b accident." that's all it looks like. True was trying to be cute and ended up being stupid. She gets it now. Sure, still a little suspicious but no where near as shady as Mike.
Now, mike is picking on her because he can find no other way out. However, Mike's nominations in week one were far worse and there is no excuse. Mike is playing the same transparent game that he plays every time he is on the villain team. Goof big and early then harass and manipulate for the rest of the game.
Anyone else get random pms from him of an emotionally manipulative nature?
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Nov 10, 2012 14:01:54 GMT -8
Anyone else get random pms from him of an emotionally manipulative nature? Mike sent me this in week 2.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 10, 2012 15:30:35 GMT -8
OK, sounds like we're between Farrel and Mike this week. I still think we're a little off the mark, but I guess time will tell and my theories aren't based on past experience anyway since I don't many of you that well.
If it's between these two, I'd go with Farrel. He seems to be helpful posting the crypto answer and generally is making some sound arguments in a friendly way. . .very un-human.
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Farrell
Super Person
Bureau of Investigation Agent
Posts: 398
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Post by Farrell on Nov 10, 2012 18:03:50 GMT -8
OK, sounds like we're between Farrel and Mike this week. I still think we're a little off the mark, but I guess time will tell and my theories aren't based on past experience anyway since I don't many of you that well. If it's between these two, I'd go with Farrel. He seems to be helpful posting the crypto answer and generally is making some sound arguments in a friendly way. . .very un-human. haha so if i was more of an a-hole I'd be less likely to be a clone? Well i still say vote mike first then me, but if you end up voting for me this week you will all have egg on your face when you find out I'm a human and I make a big "I told you so post." At least I will get some satisfaction out of that.
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Mac Murdock
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Jazz Singer
To alcohol! The cause of -- and solution to -- all of life's problems.
Posts: 125
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Post by Mac Murdock on Nov 12, 2012 13:49:38 GMT -8
I'm not so sure about this Amer...
Mike has been classic Mike this whole time, his thoughts and actions are erratic but they don't seem outright cloney. I'd bet he's the Alien before a clone.
To me Farrell is only guilty of voting with Mike. Not being active in the last installment I must ask, is this ignorance or an opportunistic clone? I'm not sure.
True's nominations catch my eye the most. Her logic of wanting to spice things up is a little fishy.
I would also say I am still unsure of Tully, Zac and Sarah. They've been active on the boards but I feel that their posts lack substance...classic bad guy misdirection.
Anyways I'm down to vote with the mob on this one, but I must say I feel like these candidates are being nominated by default.
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Super Sarah
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Post by Super Sarah on Nov 12, 2012 14:07:53 GMT -8
I'm not so sure about this Amer... Mike has been classic Mike this whole time, his thoughts and actions are erratic but they don't seem outright cloney. I'd bet he's the Alien before a clone. To me Farrell is only guilty of voting with Mike. Not being active in the last installment I must ask, is this ignorance or an opportunistic clone? I'm not sure. True's nominations catch my eye the most. Her logic of wanting to spice things up is a little fishy. I would also say I am still unsure of Tully, Zac and Sarah. They've been active on the boards but I feel that their posts lack substance...classic bad guy misdirection. Anyways I'm down to vote with the mob on this one, but I must say I feel like these candidates are being nominated by default. What do you mean by "lack substance"? I posted the entire breakdown of votes for the first 3 weeks! And, I didn't vote against you in week 1 because I was like... "no Sarah, we will not make him pay for eating you in a past game". Furthermore, you haven't really posted much this game... so I would say that lacks substance. Also, why are you defending Mike now? you said in the first week that you'd get him back for nominating you. Oh you have made some VERY endearing enemies indeed. Watch your back Mike, around every corner my dastardly devices are waiting to be your undoing. Want to get a snack? I replaced your oreo filling with toothpaste. Need to use the bathroom? Saran wrap over the toilet. Nap time? I have warm bowls of water ready at a moments notice. You will regret this until you meet your somewhat-timely demise. <--- there's the quote so you know I didn't make shit up.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 12, 2012 14:23:32 GMT -8
I would also say I am still unsure of Tully, Zac and Sarah. They've been active on the boards but I feel that their posts lack substance...classic bad guy misdirection. No substance, you mean like how I came in & successfully called Paula as a clone? Thanks for coming in and adding nothing! Talk about no substance, you are #1 on that list!
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