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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 16, 2012 21:30:14 GMT -8
I just had a "Chazz Palminteri at the end of The Usual Suspects" moment here. I think I know the last 2 clones. Let me tell you a story: Back in the cryptogram challenge, I was having some trouble solving it. I had already been in contact with Zac & Amer, both of whom had already solved it, and I was trolling for clues. With their help I was able to solve it, and since they helped me I felt comfortable enough filing them in the "human" category, so I started chatting with them about the game. 5pm rolls around and the winners are announced. Zac & I were at work. We saw the answers together and one of the first things I mention to him (and Amer, he can verify this story) is that I was very suspicious about Paula getting it correct. I know her fairly well, and while she is a wonderful person, I didn't exactly have her pegged as a master cryptographer. So what happens next? An hour later (6:10pm to be precise), she comes on and posts this: Here's a good hint.....it helps if you have a teenager in the house to ask! Actually, he's not a teen anymore...he's 24...but a whiz on all things like this. However, I did give him a head start with a common word that was repeated a couple of times that I figured out, and was actually (surprise!) correct. As Amer pointed out in another post that I don't want to track down, this explanation is awfully suspect. And our suspicions proved correct - Paula was a clone. BUT. Why did Paula come out with such a ham-fisted alibi? Nobody had publicly said anything on the board. Why would she feel the need to let everyone know she had help? The answer is, she wouldn't, unless SOMEONE TIPPED HER OFF THAT IT WAS SUSPICIOUS. But who could have tipped her off? The only 2 people I told were Zac and Amer. Zac is the clone. He solved the cryptogram, gave the answer to Paula & Farrell, then warned Paula that I thought she was suspicious. Zac & Farrell are the remaining 2 clones. FAQ: How do we know YOU aren't the clone in this scenario, you could easily have done what Zac did?Zac doesn't know Paula - I was the one who pointed out it was suspicious and told him and Amer. If I were the clone I wouldn't have done that, plus I wouldn't be starting this thread right now. I get Zac, but why Farrell?Six people got the cryptogram correct - me, Farrell, Zac, Amer, Paula, & Chris. Left standing (other than me) are Farrell, Zac, & Chris. 2 of these people are clones. Farrell has already roused our suspicion earlier, being spared this week solely because of some shady immunity shinanegans. It could be Zac & Chris, but since we already had Farrell in our sights I say we stick with that. Why would Zac help you with the cryptogram if you are human and he is a clone?Because he wanted to get in with some humans. Amer & I are strong players, we work together, and it would be a natural fit for him. Its always a good strategy for clones to get human allies. What happens if you are wrong?This is mildville, anything can happen. If someone can come up with a better plan, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, the humans need to rally and eliminate Zac & Farrell.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 16, 2012 22:44:21 GMT -8
Before I get into why this is pretty weak(though super well thought out for something spontaneous). I'd like to point out something that I had held off because the alien has been the only clone killer in town. Tulley is the alien and I've had very strong suspicions for at least a week as have some of the other humans in messages with me. It was just a matter of time before Tullley had to eliminate me without eating me. That time has come, I was thinking it would be next week. . .oh well. Reasons: A. He isn't a great Liar. Have we met Tulley? He can't hold in a smile. Anytime I mention it to him, he practically giggles like a school girl. B. The chat screams tulley. He's good with words, types quickly, and it's got his vibe to it. C. The eatings have been really careful and people he was suspicious of secretly with Amer and I. (This stuff mentioned above) I will be the 2nd co-conspirator the alien kills off after amer! D. Chat logs/Forums. Tulley was in the first group with who found the chat and didn't get lost with Mike, Sarah, and Me. We know mike is human and it's a male. So, the alien is me or Tulley if we assume they can find their own chat. Also, it had to be in the first post that answered themselves I suspect. Tulley, Farrel, or Me. Could be any of those, but Tulley is the most likely given the rest. E. He's been making a big deal about how he never gets to be anything good. well, here you go. Good job Evan! Ok, so now we have the 'why' Tulley is after me, let's check out his reasoning. It's all based on this Crypto thing, which has the following rock assumptions which all must be true for this to make any sense: 1. The clones all shared the answer to the puzzle in order to win an early vote! As I've mentioned before, this seems really strange why any group would mass like that if they are trying to hide. Besides, why in the world does anyone want to win the early events and votes. It screams suspicion and who cares, we basically voted off people not playing and the winner got a ton of attention cause they had to pick people. When I get the chance to be a 'bad side' character in a future games, I promise you won't see me winning anything early. For now, I'll just continue being another wrongly targeted human. 2. ( i had to look up amer's old post) The theory goes, Paula was lying in order to protect her correct answer by saying "However, I did give him a head start with a common word that was repeated a couple of times that I figured out, and was actually (surprise!) correct." I agree this seems odd as I've said all along, but I don't really know Paula. To me, the . at the start made the reversing the easy part. The rest you just have to have solved Crypto's before, so maybe she's no good at those and collaborated with her son. In any case, I have to agree wit Tulley here, I think it's odd, but I shouldn't really need to defend odd posts other people make. It is just as likely she was trying to look smart and make it seemed like she contributed when she didn't or maybe she really did figure out the reversal, who knows . . . 3. And the big leap. Sometime during the day, Tulley, Amer and I sent emails where we thought this was strange she got it right and likely one of the other people who are puzzle solvers gave them the answer. Now at this point, I'm supposed to have rushed and told the clones to quickly give a response out of the blue to justify their answers and post on the board? . . . Well, except in context, it isn't that "Nobody had publicly said anything on the board." In fact, much of the group is already talking about the cypto: Annie: I couldn't pay attention long enough. It didn't look that hard. Anyone care to give a hint? Sarah: Would you like a gold star? Farrel: This was tricky and barring a stupid typo I think i got it too. Paula: Here's a good hint.....it helps if you have a teenager in the house to ask! Sarah, Farrel, and Paula, all reasonably chatty people where chatting about the crypto. Go take a look, there is a conversation going on beforehand. His whole thing is based on us not looking back at this post and seeing that there is a conversation about the answer going on! Nothing out of the blue at all. If any of the above isn't true, it just falls apart. Maybe the clones are smarter than to all group together in an early vote. Maybe Paula is just trying to look like she contributed more than she did(clearly she needs to given her standing on puzzle solving). And Maybe the Farrel and Paula are just talking in context with the other posts. Good thing Sarah didn't solve the puzzle, she'd be in the list too for chatting that morning! Tulley has been working this Crypto angle the whole time in the posts. After he ate amer for being a suspect for solving it, he then went after Mike, then he was after Farrel, and now he's after me. While I thought it was a fairly interesting thought to target the cypto solvers, but it had some holes and honestly, so far it's not proven a great system. This whole things is pretty nicely laid out, but doesn't really stand close scrutiny. It's much more likely Tulley is an alien whom thought I was going to out him this week and so he took the initiative. From the looks of it, something he's had in his pocket for awhile. Anyway, Annie and Amer can back me up on the Tulley alien suspicions. A better plan is to get Tulley. Then we are 4-2 against the clones, good odds. If we kill me and then the alien eats again, it could be 2 on 2 with an alien. Bad odds.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 16, 2012 22:54:11 GMT -8
This is your defense? I am an alien because I "giggle" and "the chat screams Tulley"? Did you get Mike to write your defense for you? But I will give you credit for typing a lot of words, maybe it will distract people.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 16, 2012 23:18:49 GMT -8
Zac -TLDR
You do that a lot and I really want to know what you have to say. My poor drg addled brain gets distracted halfway through. Oh! Pretty bird!
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 16, 2012 23:21:18 GMT -8
This is your defense? I am an alien because I "giggle" and "the chat screams Tulley"? Did you get Mike to write your defense for you? But I will give you credit for typing a lot of words, maybe it will distract people. You are right, I do not have great mastery of writing, unlike a certain alien we've seen. . .capable of keeping up a unique style while chatting with themselves. Hmmn. . . maybe someone with some writing background even. The giggling thing, I admit, you have to be there. But just ask yourself, do you think Tulley could lie to your face every day? Is he mr poker face? Nope. As soon as he ate Amer, the next day when I asked, I knew it was him. I think the facts stand pretty clear. I may not have a faq and bold words in my post, but I do have far less conjecture. I'm just pointing out the obvious holes that came to me as I read his post. Maybe it is a little like some of Mike's posts. I am just another Human trying to defend myself against a clearly planned attack from someone trying really hard to turn the group against me.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 16, 2012 23:28:57 GMT -8
Zac -TLDR You do that a lot and I really want to know what you have to say. My poor drg addled brain gets distracted halfway through. Oh! Pretty bird! Sorry, I prattle. To sum: Tulley is Alien: - He's one of the few I know capable of doing the alien chat style. - He ate people he was suspicious of. - Tulley was only non dead male in early chat group who found the forum(other than me) - He's told multiple people he never gets to be anything fun. his cover story. I am not Clone: - Whole idea that clones shared answer with Paula to win an early worthless vote isn't a good strategy. Why win early nominations? - There are other explanations for Paula's strange post. I don't get why this is great evidence. - Sarah, Annie, and others were posting about their crypto solving. it wasn't out of blue like Tulley said. His theory is complicated, it's more likely he is clone targeting me than all the rest of his story is true.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 17, 2012 0:14:57 GMT -8
It seems to me that if one of you was a clone, the other could not possibly be one too (otherwise you've just spent a lot of time snarking at one another). The other could still be the alien but whatever.
Can we all agree that Farrell seems to be the most cloney? Do any other survivors seem more cloney than he?
BTW I know Farrell in real life and I am pretty confident that he's got the smarts to have figured out the cryptogram on his own. He's a real smart cookie.
So vote out Farrell this week.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Nov 17, 2012 8:37:46 GMT -8
I was going to do the classic line-by-line refutation of Zac's defense, but on review he really doesn't have anything substantive. It is all just classic clone handwaving (notice how his first refuge is NOT an affirmative defense, its a counterattack. The best defense and all that). So instead I will just make a couple of points. Let's pretend Zac's hypothesis is correct and I am the alien. If that were true: - I would just EAT Zac this week, rather than going out on a major limb calling him out as a clone like this. Nobody was calling for my head this week until now, I could just stay the course and eat him. It is way easier to defend yourself against a dead clone than a living unknown.
- You also have to believe that Zac has been sitting on all this damning evidence because, you know, its always fun having an alien around who could kill you at a moment's notice. The timing of his accusation is hilariously suspect.
As for Farrell, our primary reason for suspecting him (iirc) stems from his decision not to nominate Mike. Now that Mike has been exonerated, that looks less suspicious. However, if that is the dead-human consensus (Amer?) I am willing to go along with it. I still think Zac is the most likely.
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Farrell
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Post by Farrell on Nov 17, 2012 9:37:37 GMT -8
It seems to me that if one of you was a clone, the other could not possibly be one too (otherwise you've just spent a lot of time snarking at one another). The other could still be the alien but whatever. Can we all agree that Farrell seems to be the most cloney? Do any other survivors seem more cloney than he? BTW I know Farrell in real life and I am pretty confident that he's got the smarts to have figured out the cryptogram on his own. He's a real smart cookie. So vote out Farrell this week. I don't know why you still think i'm cloney. I explained why I protected mike. You didn't believe me. Mike was a human so you should believe me now. Why as a clone would I protect a human? As for the cryptogram, I did figure it out on my own. I was stuck for awhile until I first figured out to reverse the ltters, then I was stuck again until I figured out that some of the letters were numbers. That was a big aha cause "A" and "I" was not fitting in with the single letters. Now i suppose you could say I was the clone who first figured it out, but that is just speculation. I still think our best bet is True. Her nominies were just out there.
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Nov 17, 2012 9:44:06 GMT -8
I see it as less of a counter attack than just putting your "sudden" revelation in context.
He knew if he ate me, it would lead back to him, especially if we mobbed Farrell as was expected. The top 3 aliens were the 3 of us.
Its a great end numbers game Tulley. This whole theory has you going at least two rounds irrelevant of eliminations to out your suspects, leaving you time to kill off two more an get down to 3 total.
No hand waiving. His theory is entirely rooted in the assumption Of a 1 hr time frame and Paula's post being out of context. Please review the forum and this is easy to see as a giant leap in logic.
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Annie McClarabow
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Nov 17, 2012 10:02:34 GMT -8
Please don't rely on me. I thought others still had Farrell as there number 1 pick. With Mike human, he looks less cloney.
As for True, I honestly think her nominations were a freak n00b accident. However that could be a brilliant ploy too.
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Amer
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Post by Amer on Nov 17, 2012 13:45:19 GMT -8
Ahhh... so this is what one of my long posts looks like, with the formatting and the quotes and such. Accusations and giggling aside, we know this: Paula did not solve that puzzle on her own. Besides its apparent difficulty, her alibi had holes in it. Someone gave her the answer. That means at least one of the following must be a clone: Chris, Farrell, Tulley, or Zac. Our best shot is hitting one of those four. Regarding some of the facts laid out here: Tulley, Zac, and I did converse about the cryptogram, and concluded that Paula did not solve it. I did not then, nor do I now, think that Paula posted her alibi in response to our conversation. I think everyone was a bit surprised at how few people won the challenge, and suddenly it looked odd that Paula had solved it, so she quickly posted an alibi. Zac claims that Annie and I can back him up on his Tulley-alien suspicions. This is true. In fact, I sent an unwarranted message to Annie and Zac stating why I thought Tulley was the alien, and Zac replied to me with his own suspicions. Of course, there isn't really any proof there, and I believe the clones are the biggest threat right now, so, personally, I'd focus on either Chris or Farrell this week. For what it's worth, my interactions and experiences lead me to believe that Zac is most likely a clone.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Dec 7, 2012 7:57:27 GMT -8
So the lesson here: I was right, and NEVER listen to Amer.
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