Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 26, 2015 15:39:59 GMT -8
Welp, william mccoy is missing from most of the losing submissions, so I think that makes him a prime candidate for being worth a point and therefore preventing a tie, which sidmeier would have automatically lost since he didn't submit a tie-breaker.
Does that sound right? I know there's more detailed logic work that can be done, but whenever I try at it, I psyche myself out and my head starts to spin. Too many threads of reasoning, too hard to focus on any one at a time.
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 26, 2015 16:01:55 GMT -8
Williammccoy provided his answers early. That makes him less suspicious I think.
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 26, 2015 16:12:12 GMT -8
That is a much softer fact, and subject to much more variance. See this distribution for more information. Further, a mutineer could easily have already had a planned submission to post. Or a set of several depending on what the winner looked like. Or played it safe in case we found a way to figure out if someone is lying about theirs. There are too many possible mutineer strategies, so we have to rely on the hard data first and foremost.
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Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 26, 2015 22:22:51 GMT -8
I'd like to hear the following people share their thoughts on whom we should kill this week:
pandapirate landlubber thebay eghot (voted once) jack cutlass (voted once) rupert mcgillicutty (voted once) williammccoy (vote once) richard swabbie flynn (voted never) vitaminc (voted never)
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Post by pandapirate on Aug 27, 2015 4:58:09 GMT -8
My prime suspect, by not much, is vitaminc.. they're jailed now.. but she? was on the most people's list for being a mutineer in this week's challenge.
Before that, I was kind of on the William Mccoy or Aubrey bandwagon who were both voted for by many of us in the challenge.
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Post by williammccoy on Aug 27, 2015 8:40:25 GMT -8
I'd like to hear the following people share their thoughts on whom we should kill this week: pandapirate landlubber thebay eghot (voted once) jack cutlass (voted once) rupert mcgillicutty (voted once) williammccoy (vote once) richard swabbie flynn (voted never) vitaminc (voted never) I'd push for Jack Tappers after reading his above post. He seems to be targeting me even though his name also appears on the winning submission. Seems suspicious, like he is trying to protect himself. Honestly, I haven't heard any reason why I'm being targeting except that I was active just enough to be suspicious in the first two-three weeks, but that is probably alot of people. That is mildville though. Before he posted that I would have pushed for Captain Jack Aubrey because the first three posters had his name in common. I suppose I should still push for him and leave spite at the door.
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 27, 2015 10:06:53 GMT -8
I'd push for William Mccoy after reading his above post. He seems to be targeting me even though his name also appears on the winning submission. Seems suspicious, like he is trying to protect himself. Honestly, I haven't heard any reason why I'm being targeted except that McCoy doesn't know how to read, or else he would notice that I gave a real reason that's based on better information than the strawman he provided. That is Mildville though.
Try for more specifics, bud.
btw I don't know why panda and McCoy are just using the total number of times a name appears in people's submissions. "Several people tried this name, therefore it's the name of a mute." The fact that they all didn't win means that a commonly-used name that's not in the winner is less likely to have been worth a point in the challenge. It's not that complicated.
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Post by williammccoy on Aug 27, 2015 10:58:34 GMT -8
I'd push for William Mccoy after reading his above post. He seems to be targeting me even though his name also appears on the winning submission. Seems suspicious, like he is trying to protect himself. Honestly, I haven't heard any reason why I'm being targeted except that McCoy doesn't know how to read, or else he would notice that I gave a real reason that's based on better information than the strawman he provided. That is Mildville though. Try for more specifics, bud. btw I don't know why panda and McCoy are just using the total number of times a name appears in people's submissions. "Several people tried this name, therefore it's the name of a mute." The fact that they all didn't win means that a commonly-used name that's not in the winner is less likely to have been worth a point in the challenge. It's not that complicated. Your name appears as infrequently as mine, so by your own logic you would be a target. Also if you could read you could see that I settled on Captain Aubrey, but you again went after me. Why are you protecting him? Is it because you know he is a fellow mutineer?
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 27, 2015 12:38:46 GMT -8
Mainly I just wanted to copy what you wrote to show how generic and inexact your reasoning is.
I did not suggest that there is no reason to go after Jack Aubrey. I just wanted to make clear that there is no logical nor rational value to the "let's vote the names that show up the most" method. That's availability bias at its finest.
If the correct way to interpret people's answers puts me in the hot seat, so be it. I'm only interested in the truth.
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Post by williammccoy on Aug 27, 2015 13:36:33 GMT -8
Mainly I just wanted to copy what you wrote to show how generic and inexact your reasoning is. I did not suggest that there is no reason to go after Jack Aubrey. I just wanted to make clear that there is no logical nor rational value to the "let's vote the names that show up the most" method. That's availability bias at its finest. If the correct way to interpret people's answers puts me in the hot seat, so be it. I'm only interested in the truth. It wasn't generic and inexact because I wasn't targeting you, I was defending against you and therefore your copy and paste didn't make sense. Yes that makes a difference, and even after that I still said to go after Captain Aubrey. So thats who I'm vote for, of course, since I'm a suspect I don't expect anyone to really listen to me, but I figured I'd tell you my vote so you can vote against me and cancel it out if you want.
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 27, 2015 14:34:36 GMT -8
Fair enough, matey
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 27, 2015 18:16:29 GMT -8
I'm going with my gut here, but I don't see the argument for voting Williammmcoy as all that convincing. I do find it highly suspicious (and similar to baddie behavior of past seasons) that Jack Tappers half heartledly proposes Williammccoy and then attacks anyone with another idea. And Panda Pirate's super wishy washy support of the plan to oust William McCoy smacks of a villainous True. And both posted their Q3 answers the day after the results. Fishy fishy.
This is, as I said, based on my gut reaction to behavior on the board but my gut has served me pretty well in the past. That Williammccoy and Jack Tappers spent the better part of the afternoon sparring on the boards, I believe that one of them HAS TO BE a mutineer. I suggest voting out Jack Tappers. If he is a mutineer, vote out Panda Pirate next week. If he is innocent, vote out Williammccoy next week.
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eghot
Super Person
Posts: 40
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Post by eghot on Aug 27, 2015 20:13:24 GMT -8
Fun fact: Certain words can give people away when they are being deceitful. Yelp uses analytical programs like this to red flag fraudulent reviews on their site.
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Post by Rupert McGillicutty on Aug 27, 2015 20:16:57 GMT -8
Sorry guys I need to pay more attention to the boards here. I've been kind of aloof on the ship. I submitted my jailer's challenge entry.
I followed your lead and voted Annie and Paula, respectively.
My suspected mutineers (based on very little reasoning at all other than my gut): Cid Landlubber Eghot Vitaminc DPR
I guessed 8 mutineers.
Good hunting out there this week. My brief perusal of the forums just now has me a little worried about our odds in this whole fight. I agree with someone who posted up above somewhere...a cooperative kraken may be our best ally.
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 27, 2015 20:28:39 GMT -8
Half-heartedly? Do any of you understand the point of this challenge? The winning entry got at least one more point than every other entry, and that means that the member of the winning entry that shows up least in the losing entries is the most likely to be worth a point. I don't think that failing to delve into a verbal sudoku of sorts should count as half-hearted.
I also don't appreciate being singled out for posting my submission the day after a long Monday, when only 8 of us have posted it at all. That is, more than half of us have waited at least 3 days so far.
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 27, 2015 20:37:36 GMT -8
Pretty defensive.
Whether it's williiammcoy or Jack tappers, we'll definitely have some answers tomorrow.
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Post by Rupert McGillicutty on Aug 27, 2015 20:38:04 GMT -8
I'd like to hear the following people share their thoughts on whom we should kill this week: pandapirate landlubber thebay eghot (voted once) jack cutlass (voted once) rupert mcgillicutty (voted once) williammccoy (vote once) richard swabbie flynn (voted never) vitaminc (voted never) And now that I'm actually taking time to read the boards this week, I just noticed this. Since you asked.... I see people calling out Williammccoy and Jack Tappers. I trust nobody, at this point. Mccoy is not a bad vote. But there might be something to Annie's remark about Tappers and Panda being mutineers. Annie thinks that Panda = True. I don't know that I'm 100% convinced of that but Annie has always had a good instinct for things like this so I think I like her argument. At this point Mccoy vs. Tapper I have a 50/50 shot at being suspicious. If I vote the same way as mutees then I'll be suspect later. So I'm almost tempted to vote for a 3rd party to avoid damning myself by accident. I'm just thinking out loud and sharing my self-preservation logic with you. Even if my intentions are good I can be held 'accountable' for them just based on the odds, because I know you lot are a paranoid bunch (and for good reason). I hope this sheds some light on my thought process. Also I did miss one vote before due to inactivity and not paying attention, but I was also jailed one week...hence only one vote so far.
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Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 27, 2015 21:36:07 GMT -8
Voting for a third party is a wasted vote and puts a person toward the top of the suspect pile. Of course it's near the end of the day so it seems unlikely that you'll read this.
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Post by vitaminc on Aug 28, 2015 5:10:14 GMT -8
I am not a mnutineer I am just a terroble player. between work and vacation and not udnerstanding the schedule I probably deserve to be booted just for sucking. But I am not a mutineer.
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Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
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Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 28, 2015 8:28:42 GMT -8
Screw you guys, I'm going hewm
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