Post by Stabby on Apr 18, 2020 14:12:39 GMT -8
I'll admit there is a solid distinction to be made with checking in once in 2 days, but the whole "they'll be ahead by getting an elimination at night" is the sunk cost fallacy. It's throwing bad money after worse.
Let me explain. Our relative voting advantage over villains is expressible as A = H/V where H is the number of Heroes and V is the number of Villains.
I'm not sure if the true ratio is known from the start, but historically it's been around 1/3.
That would mean with 18 people at the start, A = 12/6 = 2
When making a decision, we should consider the expected impact on A. We want to keep A large for as many cycles as possible, so we can use our powers and work things out through discourse and figure out how to establish trust (we may have to sacrifice ourselves to the villains by outing ourselves, be proven right after the fact and our posts mined for honest observation, etc).
If our expected gain in relative advantage (E) is positive or zero, it's probably worth doing if it yields information. If our expected gain is negative, there would have to be a compelling, high-stakes reason to go through with it. That is, someone would have to make themselves the prime target for the next vote if they're wrong.
When we know nothing but participation volume, it's still basically random, so 66% chance hero, 33% chance villain. An example of something that changes those chances is when several observations clearly pin a murder on one person, so the choice of that person is more like 90% villain. Anyway, if we do nothing, then the villains kill one hero tonight and E[H] = 11 and E[V] = 6, so
E = 11 / 6 = 1.83
If we kill a random person (and then the villains kill one hero), E[H] = 10.33 and E[V] = 5.66, so
E = 10.33 / 5.66 = 1.82 < 1.83
House always wins, as it were. Everyone is still adjusting and finding
We will have to message people that we know who haven't posted much so that they actually use their powers tonight
So I don't see us gaining .01 advantage worth of info by killing on the first day. Most information from how people talk in the first week is junk, but info from the powers gives us some bedrock
I like you Mac, couldn't agree more.