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Post by bigsexy on Sept 18, 2013 15:39:02 GMT -8
That's true. This first vote is actually kinda important for the following weeks. If we vote for an inactive player, we might end up with a week of meaningless accusations between diplomats about which of the two is a spy, with an inactive, non speaking known diplomat, which helps the diplomats very little. If we vote an active player, then he is no longer a threat to the other diplomats, and is trustworthy, but has a target from the other spies. An active player is already a threat to the spies, it would just make the target bigger. If I were a spy, I'd go after the active veterans of this game first. A revealed inactive player still seems like a small threat, plus the spies would gain information, one less person to suspect as the assassin.
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Post by Stinky Pete on Sept 18, 2013 15:47:25 GMT -8
And, yet again, I have to point out that the people who are pushing to kill an active player, are not nominating themselves. You're also not nominating yourself. If half the players nominate themselves we're back at square one on the volunteer thing.
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Post by Stinky Pete on Sept 18, 2013 15:53:08 GMT -8
But what has anyone done that is spy like? I should probably just shut up now. I'm useless on painkillers. Amer has been pretty heated about anyone who wants him polygraphed, and seems to perceive it as a threat, especially considering the point Farrell made about how the vote affects the spies, and the fact that they'll want to kill based on who they think will be on to them first.
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Sept 18, 2013 16:13:22 GMT -8
[glow=red,2,300]However, if the spies convince everyone to vote for a diplomat, they can guarantee that there's only a 25% chance that a spy gets killed, and there's even a chance that they could snare the assassin.Convincing the people to vote for a diplomat is a win-win for the spies. They get to kill a diplomat or the assassin, and they don't have to worry about being voted out.[/glow]
There's the hole I was looking for. Yes that does give the spies something, but the diplomats need information more than anyone else. Does that possible advantage to the spies negate the benefit the diplomats have by gaining some information? There are reasons why we've always voted for inactives first: - There's still a reasonable chance (1/4) that we'll get a spy.
- It hurts us less if we're wrong, because that player wasn't participating anyway
- It forces people to participate, rather than sitting back and watching people die off
- It exposes spies who suddenly show up when their name is put on the chopping block
- It prevents us from accidentally killing strong players based on phantom evidence
- Throwing fodder players up to be killed gives the active diplomats more time to find the spies
Now Zac and Pete are suggesting that whoever believes any of that must be a spy, so they want to start off by voting for active players. The results of that, besides losing the previous advantages, are: - We have nothing to go on yet and are attacking randomly
- If we vote for an active diplomat, we've severely crippled our team
- We apparently must sacrifice strong diplomats, week after week, to make sure they're diplomats
The whole "we need information so we have to target strong players" angle is bogus. We've never needed that before and we've always been competitive. The position that Zac and Pete are pushing so hard for costs a lot, and gives us little.
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Amer
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My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Sept 18, 2013 16:27:03 GMT -8
Voting for an inactive helps the spies Specifically naming who you are v oting for in the forums helps the spies Voting for someone who you think is a diplomat but want to be sure helps the spies Voting for someone you think is a spy, helps the diplomats I know who im voting for and have told two others. Ill tell more but if the spies kill my target then the people i told are my next suspects. This is factually not true. Voting for an inactive player has exactly the same chance of netting a spy or assassin as voting for an active player. The cost of failure, however, is very low compared to voting for an active. Which is why we've always done it like that.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Sept 18, 2013 16:27:57 GMT -8
I like Zac's plan of voting for someone (me) and if (when) I am shown to be a diplomat, doing everything in our power to conspire to give me immunity next week. Granted, there is a possibility that Evan will drop an un-conspirable immunity challenge on us, but usually there is something that we can do if we all work together, and if we DON'T all work together, well, we know who the next targets are.
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Post by Tulley Kennedy on Sept 18, 2013 16:29:31 GMT -8
Voting for an inactive helps the spies Specifically naming who you are v oting for in the forums helps the spies Voting for someone who you think is a diplomat but want to be sure helps the spies Voting for someone you think is a spy, helps the diplomats I know who im voting for and have told two others. Ill tell more but if the spies kill my target then the people i told are my next suspects. This is factually not true. Voting for an inactive player has exactly the same chance of netting a spy or assassin as voting for an active player. The cost of failure, however, is very low compared to voting for an active. Which is why we've always done it like that. I'd say voting for an inactive has a slightly better chance of netting diplomat instead of a spy (compared to pure random chance). Historically, I'd say spies are maybe 20% more active than normals.
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Sept 18, 2013 16:31:08 GMT -8
I like Zac's plan of voting for someone (me) and if (when) I am shown to be a diplomat, doing everything in our power to conspire to give me immunity next week. Granted, there is a possibility that Evan will drop an un-conspirable immunity challenge on us, but usually there is something that we can do if we all work together, and if we DON'T all work together, well, we know who the next targets are. This should work. If Evan drops a funky challenge, then everyone will agree to not enter it, except for Tulley. Anyone who " oops I accidentally won" gets instantly labeled as spy and voted next week.
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Annie McClarabow
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Pay your library tab, errr I mean fines
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Post by Annie McClarabow on Sept 18, 2013 16:46:45 GMT -8
I like Zac's plan of voting for someone (me) and if (when) I am shown to be a diplomat, doing everything in our power to conspire to give me immunity next week. Granted, there is a possibility that Evan will drop an un-conspirable immunity challenge on us, but usually there is something that we can do if we all work together, and if we DON'T all work together, well, we know who the next targets are. This should work. If Evan drops a funky challenge, then everyone will agree to not enter it, except for Tulley. Anyone who " oops I accidentally won" gets instantly labeled as spy and voted next week. I'm still apprehensive that whoever is put up is putting his neck on the line but it seems like more people are interested in subjecting an active to the poly. Like this season of big brother, I will go as the house goes.
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Post by Stinky Pete on Sept 18, 2013 17:10:30 GMT -8
There are reasons why we've always voted for inactives first: - There's still a reasonable chance (1/4) that we'll get a spy.
- It hurts us less if we're wrong, because that player wasn't participating anyway
- It forces people to participate, rather than sitting back and watching people die off
- It exposes spies who suddenly show up when their name is put on the chopping block
- It prevents us from accidentally killing strong players based on phantom evidence
- Throwing fodder players up to be killed gives the active diplomats more time to find the spies
See, that's why I'm growing more interested, Amer. In your language you keep treating the polygraph like a death sentence. I haven't seen that in such a heavy degree from other people, so a reasonable explanation for why you do, is that it truly is a death sentence for you and that fact is sitting at the back of your mind. You'll notice I'm not terribly concerned whether I look suspicious right now, because I feel like being voted to become a known diplomat is a good thing, regardless of whether it makes the spies want to kill me. And that's why I hope my doubts about you are mistaken, and that we find out that you really are a Diplomat, because you seem helpful (if a little trigger-happy) when you're on our side. You usually make pre... pretty, good... *snooze*
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Post by Ron Wednesday on Sept 18, 2013 17:23:49 GMT -8
I think we're all settling on the fact that Amer is strangely against the poly. If we're wrong, then great, we are guaranteed to have a solid diplomat ally.
I love the idea of protecting the person even more because it's a great time to see spy's conspire against the plan. It's like a challenge within a challenge!
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Farrell
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Bureau of Investigation Agent
Posts: 398
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Post by Farrell on Sept 18, 2013 18:17:08 GMT -8
Amer is being very vocal which is typically him, but also not rational which is not typically him. I don't think he is a spy though. I think he is just being stubborn. Voting for an inactive hurts the diplomats. Having an active known diplomat can be very helpful and I like the idea of trying to protect the known diplomat next week. True its not a guarantee but we should still try for it. It can also help us reveal the spies. I can not stress how important it is to not advertise your vote. If the spies get wind of who is going to be polygraphed, they will just vote for that person this week instead of next week.
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Post by Peppperettte Paige on Sept 18, 2013 19:24:38 GMT -8
I've read and reread the whole thread...I am probably considered inactive...I have contributed very little to the game play. Reason being I have no idea how this is played. I've read the rules, I played the challenge, I read the posts...Im lost, so far from what I have read and understand which is very little we have 21 players split into 3 groups each group is trying to kill off the other 2, only peeps that know who each other is, is spies??? the rest of us are to try and figure out and get them voted off which equals death , so with that being said, I have not said much as I'm trying to figure this game out yet...so kill me off for inactivity, i'll continue to read and learn...but next episode I'll hunt you down and seek revenge. I do have my own theory as to who I personally would vote out this week, but based on suspicion, and personal theory. Too early to throw logic in there but it should start coming into play soon... Pass me the bottle Pete, I may have just written my own death sentence.
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Post by Neutrino Esquire on Sept 18, 2013 19:57:57 GMT -8
I've read and reread the whole thread...I am probably considered inactive...I have contributed very little to the game play. Reason being I have no idea how this is played. I've read the rules, I played the challenge, I read the posts...Im lost, so far from what I have read and understand which is very little we have 21 players split into 3 groups each group is trying to kill off the other 2, only peeps that know who each other is, is spies??? the rest of us are to try and figure out and get them voted off which equals death , so with that being said, I have not said much as I'm trying to figure this game out yet...so kill me off for inactivity, i'll continue to read and learn...but next episode I'll hunt you down and seek revenge. I do have my own theory as to who I personally would vote out this week, but based on suspicion, and personal theory. Too early to throw logic in there but it should start coming into play soon... Pass me the bottle Pete, I may have just written my own death sentence. There's actually 23 players, not 21. Thought I should clarify that since this IS a numbers game. There are 17 "good" guys + 5 "bad" guys + 1 assassin that does whatever he/she wants. You are correct when you said only the spies/baddies know who each other are. If I were you, I wouldn't really worry about being voted off for inactivity. You're not on anyone's target list (AFAIK) and judging by this thread, there are people from every extreme. They're doing whatever they can to convince you to vote for what's best for their game (that's how you play!). The people who are voting for inactives will most likely vote for fattymcfattzz or Brad before they come after you. So just read through what people post and decide for yourself who seems suspicious (or useless) and vote for them tomorrow. HTH
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Amer
Super Person
My super power is tremendous wealth.
Posts: 372
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Post by Amer on Sept 18, 2013 20:24:18 GMT -8
See, that's why I'm growing more interested, Amer. In your language you keep treating the polygraph like a death sentence. I haven't seen that in such a heavy degree from other people, so a reasonable explanation for why you do, is that it truly is a death sentence for you and that fact is sitting at the back of your mind. You'll notice I'm not terribly concerned whether I look suspicious right now, because I feel like being voted to become a known diplomat is a good thing, regardless of whether it makes the spies want to kill me. And that's why I hope my doubts about you are mistaken, and that we find out that you really are a Diplomat, because you seem helpful (if a little trigger-happy) when you're on our side. You usually make pre... pretty, good... *snooze* Do people really not see this? The spies have to kill the exposed diplomats. Strategically, they'd be fools not to. For the very same reasons why you want diplomats to be tested. They can't allow known diplomats organizing people against them. They want chaos. They want everyone distrusting each other. It hides them. Perhaps I'm biased because I spent a lot of time thinking about strategies while we were developing it, but you have to understand the basic premise: diplomats want a publicly confirmed diplomat — the spies don't want that, so they'll kill any confirmed diplomats. In theory, the plan to vote Tulley may work. It comes down to whether we can actually keep winning the challenges for him, week after week. I can not stress how important it is to not advertise your vote. If the spies get wind of who is going to be polygraphed, they will just vote for that person this week instead of next week. This is actually a valid point that I hadn't considered. If they know we're voting for Tulley, then they can just kill him this week. However, I don't see how we can operate if we can't discuss who to vote for.
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Farrell
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Bureau of Investigation Agent
Posts: 398
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Post by Farrell on Sept 18, 2013 21:11:39 GMT -8
Perhaps I'm biased because I spent a lot of time thinking about strategies while we were developing it, but you have to understand the basic premise: diplomats want a publicly confirmed diplomat — the spies don't want that, so they'll kill any confirmed diplomats. And this is the exact point where your logic falls apart. What is the difference between a publicly confirmed diplomat who is inactive and a non-confirmed diplomat who is inactive? The answer is there is no difference. There is also no difference between an inactive publicly confirmed diplomat and a dead confirmed diplomat. Hmm actually that's not true, because a dead confirmed diplomat can and will still post, so really a publicly confirmed inactive diplomat is worse than a dead diplomat. In essence, by voting for an inactive you are helping the spies out by wasting a week when we could get an active confirmed diplomat.
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Post by Neutrino Esquire on Sept 18, 2013 21:28:38 GMT -8
I can not stress how important it is to not advertise your vote. If the spies get wind of who is going to be polygraphed, they will just vote for that person this week instead of next week. This is actually a valid point that I hadn't considered. If they know we're voting for Tulley, then they can just kill him this week. However, I don't see how we can operate if we can't discuss who to vote for. I have a plan but we need a confirmed diplomat (dead or alive). Before the vote, we construct a chain of people and each person will tell the next person who this week's vote is. Whoever breaks that chain and names somebody else has some explaining to do when the voting results get published. The person who starts the chain has to be trusted (that's why we need a confirmed diplomat). The inactive people can go near the end of the chain or be skipped entirely if the next person doesn't hear anything by a certain time. If everyone follows the chain, we force the spies to vote for who WE want. If someone breaks the chain, they will be revealed on Friday and targeted next. However, doing this will pretty much gurantee that the spies will kill off our vote this week. The tradeoff is that we control their vote unless they want to reveal one of their members.
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Post by Paula Romanetti on Sept 18, 2013 21:32:18 GMT -8
Omg....my head was spinning trying to sort out the various theories and arguments! For the first time in a few games I felt safe as a "good guy" but reality sets in pretty quickly. Most of what has been said in this thread is pretty solid, and Amer's latest post makes a whole lot of sense to me. While the poly will keep me safe amongst my own, it will, as Amer says, put my head on the spy chopping block.....as it would any other proven diplomat.
I'm open to voting ideas.....
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Post by Son Anheuser on Sept 19, 2013 5:34:06 GMT -8
I've read and reread the whole thread...I am probably considered inactive...I have contributed very little to the game play. Reason being I have no idea how this is played. I've read the rules, I played the challenge, I read the posts...Im lost, so far from what I have read and understand which is very little we have 21 players split into 3 groups each group is trying to kill off the other 2, only peeps that know who each other is, is spies??? the rest of us are to try and figure out and get them voted off which equals death , so with that being said, I have not said much as I'm trying to figure this game out yet...so kill me off for inactivity, i'll continue to read and learn...but next episode I'll hunt you down and seek revenge. I do have my own theory as to who I personally would vote out this week, but based on suspicion, and personal theory. Too early to throw logic in there but it should start coming into play soon... Pass me the bottle Pete, I may have just written my own death sentence. This doesn't really change even after you play a few times. When in doubt toss out some baseless accusations.
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Post by Erik Coppertop on Sept 19, 2013 6:41:17 GMT -8
Hey everyone...Sorry I havent posted....I have been busy and frankly forgot. I am normal! or whatever.
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