|
|
Post by pandapirate on Aug 19, 2015 12:10:31 GMT -8
Who should we vote for? voting due Thursday tis your warning mateys
I wanted to contribute somehow so I listed people who are least active as far as posts go (5 or less.) I agree that less active might not mean "MUTINEER" but maybe it will assist in Cid's Statement here: ((if this is helpful, step 2 to this list would be to see who participated in challenges from this list. I can work more on it tomorrow.)
"Individuals who have kept a low profile by not talking much, but have done at most 1 challenges or votings. People I highly suspect to be mutineers."
These people are gone probably from captain:
Pirate Booty
Edbagels
Francois
Least Posts (5 or less)
5 Richard Swabby Flynn
4 Capt Jack Aubrey
4 The Bay
3 Landlubber
3 Eghot
5 William Mccoy
1 Seasick Scallywag
4 Rupert Mcgillicuddy
1 Cid Meier
3 Jack Cutlass
#RAWRGPANDAPARTYINMEQUARTERSSUNDOWNBRINGRUM
|
|
cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
|
Post by cid on Aug 19, 2015 12:34:49 GMT -8
Although I have said the statement in the last voting round, I have two people who I suspect to be mutineers. Captain Jack Aubrey and William Mccoy. They have been "active" enough such that they can defend themselves.
I'll bring some rum. I can't promise they will be full by the time I arrive.
|
|
|
|
Post by Captain Jack Aubrey on Aug 19, 2015 15:00:59 GMT -8
Although I have said the statement in the last voting round, I have two people who I suspect to be mutineers. Captain Jack Aubrey and William Mccoy. They have been "active" enough such that they can defend themselves. I'll bring some rum. I can't promise they will be full by the time I arrive. I think the other side (very active) can be true as well and that means we need to be careful regarding accusations. The best thing to do is to look at vote count and see if a pattern emerges. |
|
|
|
Post by williammccoy on Aug 19, 2015 15:39:02 GMT -8
I'm not a mutineer. I wasn't posting last week because I was on vacation. Also this past jailer challenge was hard!
|
|
|
|
Post by merrymatey on Aug 19, 2015 18:19:10 GMT -8
Post, don't post, immunity challenge, don't enter immunity challenge, who knows, who cares. I accused DPR of being the Kraken as DPR didn't jail anyone and voilà, I'm eaten. Is DPR the Kraken and looking to eliminate those with suspicions or is the Kraken really smart and ate me so that it would look like DPR is the Kraken. Who knows, who cares. I would vote to plank DPR on the basis that he/she bothered to enter the challenge (thus eating up a winning spot for another), couldn't bother to jail anyone, and couldn't bother to explain. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm trying to get to the other side, or the far side, or somewhere.  |
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208 
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 19, 2015 20:05:23 GMT -8
Keep in mind that, unless we think the Kraken totally incompetent, it can help us kill mutineers. It also basically counts as a pirate when we're considering how many votes the mutineers have proportional to total votes. If we kill the Kraken it's not a total loss (1 less death per week) so we're better off trying to kill people that we expect to be mutineers
Also whenever I see DPR I can't help but think of this
|
|
|
|
Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 19, 2015 21:48:15 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by Captain Jack Aubrey on Aug 20, 2015 8:19:51 GMT -8
|
|
cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
|
Post by cid on Aug 20, 2015 12:27:51 GMT -8
So... do we have someone in mind to vote for this week?
Captain Jack just points out the most active players could be mutineers, and William just said he was on vacation which explains why he didn't vote last week. Practially almost no one did this week's challenge because it was just that hard.
I still suspect either one of you. You guys have not convince me why I should not think you guys are not mutineers.
With little information to go on atm, I'm basing my assumptions on that being inactive means you're likely to be a pirate, as it people are not as interested in being the pirate role. I have also assumed that people who have been very active are less likely to be mutineers/kraken because it brings too much attention to them and could easily get them targeted or killed.
Right now, Captain and William has been partcipating in almost every challenge and voting and have been "secretly" active. This is why I suspect you both. Thats why I think either one of you are mutineers.
|
|
|
|
Post by Fluffy Rob on Aug 20, 2015 13:27:40 GMT -8
Vacation is a baloney reason for inactivity. Baddies have tried to hide behind that excuse before.
|
|
|
|
Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 20, 2015 14:03:48 GMT -8
The only thing I have to go on at this point is that DPR won the challenge, and then didn't jail anyone. This seems to implicate him as the Kraken. Winning the challenge was random, which means that DPR could have been attempting to not win. After winning, he could either jail himself and not eat that week, which would have been suspicious, or he could simply not jail anyone, make up an excuse, and eat as normal.
To me, this is the strongest evidence currently available. The only question is whether it is currently beneficial for us to kill the Kraken. He is attacking randomly (from our perspective), which means that he has a better shot of killing a mutineer than we do through voting. So it's probably better to not kill him at this time.
Therefore, I will be voting for edbagels.
He has not made any comments. He has not voted. This means he's worthless as a pirate. However, if he is a mutineer, then one of his dastardly brothers will warn him of his impending doom and he will magically appear to defend himself! Or at least vote this week.
Either way, edbagels is a pretty safe vote.
|
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 14:08:25 GMT -8
Vacation is a baloney reason for inactivity. Baddies have tried to hide behind that excuse before. Good point, especially now that we have no idea who is who and what their life is like. If mccoy were annie, for example, that excuse would be highly implausible. I'd also like to add that in the past, the pattern has felt like 1. Anxious bad guys stay quiet rather than risk giving themselves away 2. Enough people vocalize their thoughts 3. Non-vocal becomes a small and conspicuous group 4. Bad guys have to talk more lest they be targeted This season it feels like enough people are quiet that anxious bad guys can easily feel safe blending in among non-vocals. It's not like cid is calling his analysis a silver bullet, and I agree that but it's a consideration that needs to be taken. --and i see there's a new post so i'll finish after reading it |
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 14:21:00 GMT -8
Winning the challenge was random, which means that DPR could have been attempting to not win. With an acronym that spells Scrotom? Seems pretty try-hard to me lol. Anyway, the jailer doesn't have to jail himself (see: current jailer) and the role can simply be used to help suss out the kraken, and also to keep the mutineers from getting it to protect their own (although really if someone is suspicious and the jailer jails them that's doubly suspicious, though early in the game it would reduce the chance of the kraken eating a mutineer) |
|
|
|
Post by The Dread Pirate Roberts on Aug 20, 2015 14:33:18 GMT -8
His submission seemed asinine to me, and every voter who made a submission had an incentive to vote for the submission that they thought had the least chance of winning, thus increasing the chance of their own submission winning. Bluntly: DPR's submission likely won because it was the worst submission. I think the Kraken needs to participate, but only just barely, and making a submission like that shows participation while still being juvenile enough to not be taken seriously. I believe he didn't plan on people voting for the worst submission.
Anyway, it's just speculation. I currently believe DPR is the Kraken and that it's not beneficial to kill the Kraken at this time, so I'm voting for edbagels.
Also, my submission was clearly the best.
|
|
|
|
Post by landlubber on Aug 20, 2015 14:37:02 GMT -8
If there's no hard facts this week, this is probably going to turn into another random voting session.
Each random voting session favors the mutineers because it lets them vote off who they want, with minimal votes, without arousing suspicion.
|
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 14:47:43 GMT -8
hey everyone, let's kill the no-show guy who's going to die of inactivity. if he's a mutineer, that will boost my credibility, and if he's a pirate, no net loss amirite? oh, unless the mutineers get him to defend himself and/or vote because of my awesome post in which case we have to spend this week's vote on him or else he won't die like he normally would great job, genius. so now that that's out there, should we just vote for edbagels and politely and ask the kraken to kill one of cid's suggestions, assume that either edbagels is a pirate or a mutineer whose team can't mobilize him and go on as normal, or what? |
|
cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
|
Post by cid on Aug 20, 2015 14:52:45 GMT -8
The only thing I have to go on at this point is that DPR won the challenge, and then didn't jail anyone. This seems to implicate him as the Kraken. Winning the challenge was random, which means that DPR could have been attempting to not win. After winning, he could either jail himself and not eat that week, which would have been suspicious, or he could simply not jail anyone, make up an excuse, and eat as normal. To me, this is the strongest evidence currently available. The only question is whether it is currently beneficial for us to kill the Kraken. He is attacking randomly (from our perspective), which means that he has a better shot of killing a mutineer than we do through voting. So it's probably better to not kill him at this time. Therefore, I will be voting for edbagels. He has not made any comments. He has not voted. This means he's worthless as a pirate. However, if he is a mutineer, then one of his dastardly brothers will warn him of his impending doom and he will magically appear to defend himself! Or at least vote this week. Either way, edbagels is a pretty safe vote. You have every right to vote for whoever you want, but I suggest we vote for someone we think is the mutineer and not someone who is inactive. When we already lost 4 pirate in the first week, and then 2 in the next, we are already at a "week's worth" of a safe vote, assuming at least 2 pirates will die per week. If edbagels magically votes, he will be automatically suspect him of being mutineer and mutineers should be aware of that. This is the same case for piratebooty. If he votes next week (which I have a feeling he might), he will be automatically be suspected as a mutineer. And since we expect edbagels and piratebooty to die anyways, voting for them right now does not help, only if they happen to stay alive next week, then we should vote them. If they both die due to inactivity, we will at worst be with with another 4 pirate deaths (edbagels, piratebooty, kraken's food, voted pirate). Voting for either one of them will likely results in only 2 pirates death (or 3 if kraken eats someone), but we would have wasted another week without finding a mutineer. I still on the camp on making Captain Jack of William walk the plank, unless there a suggestion to not vote for them? P.S. piratebooty has been active |
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 14:56:52 GMT -8
every voter...had an incentive to vote for the submission that they thought had the least chance of winning, thus increasing the chance of their own submission winning. Bluntly: DPR's submission likely won because it was the worst submission... I believe he didn't plan on people voting for the worst submission. Anyway, it's just speculation. I currently believe DPR is the Kraken and that it's not beneficial to kill the Kraken at this time, so I'm voting for edbagels. Also, my submission was clearly the best. Excuse me? Amid my awesome drunkenness/sails joke, "HMS Bounty" (come on), a Marvel reference, some nonsense, a half-pun about ships named SS ____, some moon runes, an insult, a submission by a dead guy, and a thin 'murica joke, you thought an acronym that spells Scrotoms was the worst? Puh-LEASE! |
|
cid
Super Person
Posts: 130
|
Post by cid on Aug 20, 2015 15:03:02 GMT -8
What's wrong with HMS bounty?
|
|
Jack Tappers
Super Person
Ready to plunder yer booty
Posts: 208
|
Post by Jack Tappers on Aug 20, 2015 15:06:35 GMT -8
It's boring
|
|
