The thread where we don't tie the vote again

[Jack Tappers]

So, The Dread Pirate Roberts is ready to make there be only one!

DPR got the jailer but didn't jail anyone, which is a pretty big foul. To win the immunity challenge and then dip out, shows the wrong kind of apathy. 

Basically, when we don't have much information, our next best approach is to kill someone who will cause the least regret if that person turns out to be a true pirate. If DPR is going to exhibit this pattern of behavior, that could be bad for us whether he's a mutineer or not.

Is there anything to be said in his defense, or to point to someone with a lower potential regret? If I don't hear anything convincing, my vote will stay on DPR.

[Jack Tappers]

Just putting this here so we can be focused

Aug 13, 2015 11:05:11 GMT -7 cid said:
Although I want to vote DPR off for not jailing anyone, I don't think it is the best choice.

Mutineers did not know if their votes would be revealed for the challenge, which means that if they vote for a single mutineer or individual, they put themselves in unnecessry risk. If DPR was a mutineer or a kraken, not bothering to jail anyone in itself is risky, as it would put a big target on himself, like right now.

Since we do not know how many mutineers are working with each other and 4 pirates already dead, its hard to tell that killing off a DPR (who is very likely to be a pirate) minimizes harm.

DPR lack of actions did not give us the optimial amount of information, but it at least shows the DPR is more likely to be a pirate than anything else.

I suggest you guys vote who you think is most likely the kraken or a mutineer than wasting your vote on a most likely true pirate. Even if that pirate is a one-inch sword.

[cid]

Lol. Thank you for making a copy of my post here. I hope my points convince you to vote otherwise.

[Jack Tappers]

Those are really good points, cid, but who do you think would minimize risk? There's the people who didn't do the immunity challenge at all, whom The Captain said would die, so potentially a vote for one of them could be un-risked by their guaranteed death anyway.

However, he hasn't killed them (yet), which could mean that doing so would have ruined the game's balance, so they're either mostly mutineers or mostly true pirates. But he announces deaths in the gazette and it comes after voting, so we can't be sure that he changed his mind.

I see there's a post made while I was writing this, so I'll read that now.

Edit: Okay, nothing huge. I'm hesitant to post most of my reasoning at the moment because I don't want to influence Brownbeard's decision and it's almost lunch time, and I only have 10 more minutes to edit this post

but i can still copypaste the list i have of people who didn't do the immunity challenge


Jack Cutlass, edbagels, paulycrackerz, piratebooty, François l'Ollonais

[pandapirate]

Do we do DPR who participated more than some of these guys?

Jack Cutlass, edbagels, paulycrackerz, piratebooty, François l'Ollonais

idk if that's fair. What if we keep voting off the people who play least/ go in that order? i dont know. you guys know better than me.

LETS DO A LINE OF BAMBOO

[cid]

So I'm going to write multiple lists and my thoughts for groups on the list:

1. People who did neither challenges or votes
- edbagels
- piratebooty

Both of them have not been active and will most likely be executed for being inactive. They are most likely pirates and will serve no benefit in voting for either of them.

2. People who did neither challenges or votes but ATTEMPT to:
- François l'Ollonais
- jackcutlass

Both of them did not contrbute to the challenges or votes, but made an attempt after the challenges were over, but neither of them have voted. There is a chance that both of them may be executed as well, but we will have to see.

3. People under the sails:
- paulycrackerz
- seasickscallywag
- sidmeier

Individuals who have kept a low profile by not talking much, but have done at most 1 challenges or votings. People I highly suspect to be mutineers.

[Fluffy Rob]

I like your analysis even though I would like to see the ship emptied of anyone named dread pirate.

?. Boo! I'm a ghost.

[Jack Tappers]

Looks like our lists intersect at paulycrackerz.

Sounds like the best way to minimize risk of both an errant kill and another tied vote. I don't know if I'm using this right, but like a Schelling point.

ATTENTION: If anyone is voting for someone else, please discuss first so we don't have another tie

I'll check back this evening

[merrymatey]

I'm down for some crackers. The DPR did not jail hisself. The Kraken cannot eat if jailed. Hmmm. Sounds a bit too obvious but a little on the dumb side.

[Richard "Swabbie" Flynn]

I'll hop on the bandwagon, but have reservations.

IMO, inactives typically have un-exciting roles, like normal everyday pirate or something. While we are getting rid of inactives, we also have a high chance of shrinking the normal pirate pool, which can be dangerous.

But for now, Vote: paulycrackerz.

[Jack Tappers]

Eight bells and all is quiet. Fingers crossed for a mutineer's death.

[vitaminc]

But inactives are no help to us. They don't vote so even if we got rid of them and one is a mutineer or kraken we are ahead. There is no downside to voting inactive except we miss targetting a bad guy I guess. Cid's analysis has some merit too though. Suspicious behaviour. if pauly doesn't speak up I'm in gfor voting Pauly.

[Evan]

Aug 14, 2015 6:17:30 GMT -8 vitaminc said:

But inactives are no help to us. They don't vote so even if we got rid of them and one is a mutineer or kraken we are ahead. There is no downside to voting inactive except we miss targetting a bad guy I guess. Cid's analysis has some merit too though. Suspicious behaviour. if pauly doesn't speak up I'm in gfor voting Pauly.

Don't forget: Voting is done every Thursday

[vitaminc]

WWTF did I miss the vote?

[Captain Jack Aubrey]

hmmm

[Jack Tappers]

So, now that paulycrackerz turned out to be a true pirate, are you still as confident in your indicator, cid?

I think your categories are useful and we should keep an eye on them, but maybe we should try picking from category 2 this time. Not participating in a way that provides information—admittedly the challenges so far haven't given us much opportunity to spot collusion, but votes still give something—appears more like deliberate ass-covering to me.

Kinda hoping to find that the surrendermonkey Frenchman isn't on my team, so that's my bias, and I'd like to hear some input before I go down a self-reinforcing spiral

[cid]

I'm as confident as I'll ever be when trying to find out who would be a mutineer or kraken.

You think we should vote for someone in my category 2? As in Jack Cutlass and François l'Ollonais?

I think theres no point on voting for François l'Ollonais, as if he remains inactive, he should be dead by end of this week. I wish if the Captain can confirm if this is true.

I have new list of people who I think are mutineers, but I don't remember if Jack Cutlass is in that list. I don't think Jack Cutlass is a mutineer at the moment , but can you give me on some thoughts on why you think we should vote for Jack Cutlass?

If I misunderstood, please correct me, as I'm assuming you mean to choose people who are on 2nd list.

[Jack Tappers]

I was going on what the behavior means, rather than particular individuals, so to me it was a toss-up between them and I initially chose Francois based on prejudice, but wanted to make it clear that was the case so it wouldn't create a group confirmation bias effect. But now that I'm more awake (and since you reiterated it), I see why it's pointless to vote for either of them because they're probably dead men walking anyway, but then also just now I looked and realized Jack Cutlass voted last week, so I think I'm on the same page now.

...and I'm out of ideas. I usually get more analytical in the evenings so I'll try and come up with a decent candidate or two later

[Evan]

Im almost definitelt going to boot people who have been inactive in all three votes and all threee challenges. I have another trick up my sleeve, too, though

[pandapirate]

Does it help to track who is not posting?